2021 State of the Environment Report Marine Chapter – Expert Assessment – Pressure – Climate and system variability

Updated: 2021-08-29

The Marine chapter of the 2021 State of the Environment (SoE) report incorporates multiple expert templates developed from streams of marine data. This metadata record describes the Expert Assessment "Pressure of Climate and System Variability". ***A PDF of the full Expert Assessment, including figures and tables (where provided) is downloadable in the "On-line Resources" section of this record as "EXPERT ASSESSMENT 2021 - Pressure – Climate and System Variability"*** ---------------------------------------- DESCRIPTION OF PRESSURE Climate and the marine environment vary on multiple temporal and spatial scales. This variability results in seasonal, inter-annual, decadal and longer changes to water temperature (e.g. Figure 1), rainfall patterns affecting ocean salinity, and surface winds, oceanic currents and tidal regimes which can influence the degree of vertical mixing through the water column. Collectively, these changes also propagate from the physical environment up the food chain. DATA STREAM(S) USED IN EXPERT ASSESSMENT Published papers and reports on climate variability. ---------------------------------------- 2021 SOE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY [see attached Expert Assessment for full details] • 2021 • Assessment grade: High impact Assessment trend: Deteriorating Confidence grade: Adequate high quality evidence or high level of consensus Confidence trend: Adequate high quality evidence or high level of consensus Comparability: Comparable • 2016 • Assessment grade: Low impact Assessment trend: Unclear Confidence grade: Adequate high quality evidence or high level of consensus Confidence trend: Adequate high quality evidence or high level of consensus Comparability: Not previously assessed • 2011 • N/A ---------------------------------------- CHANGES SINCE 2016 SOE ASSESSMENT The assessed state and trend of this pressure has increased from low/stable in 2016 to high/increasing for 2021 based on research documenting a trend for overall higher extremes of impacts associated with climate variability over the reporting period that is expected to continue.